[EN] Obama to Trump: The American shift
- 1 minIntroduction
Barack Obama won the Presidency of the United States (US) in 2008, becoming the first African-American president of the nation’s history winning the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. Obama represented a change in the US politics being a central-left politician that explicitly supports increment of the minimum wage, human rights to the LGBTIQ+ community, more accessibility to healthcare, and more support to immigrants. He got reelected in 2012 with both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote. During the second term, it seems that Americans were moving to the left, becoming a more liberal country, mainly respect human rights and immigration. Policies as DACA and other refugees program were created to those who were children of an illegal immigrant or those affected by civil wars can have legal status in the US. However, during the 2016 election a non-expected shift occurs, Donald J. Trump won both the nominee of the Republican Party (GOP) and won the general election only through the college electoral vote. The polls have shown that people from certain demographic groups that supported Obama during his terms, were more likely to switch their votes than others. However, it is not very clear what might explain why some people within a group switched, while others did not. One of the theories is that attitudes toward immigration became especially salient during the 2016 campaign. Our main objective is to be exploring the data about the 2016 elections and then fit a “complicated” logistic regression model to get a sense of whether attitudes had explanatory power over and above demographic shifts. Read more here